Dry Bulk

China’s production of vehicles rose +6.3% YoY to a record 3 million in Oct’24, and it was accompanied a +16% YoY increase of the production of cold-rolled coils, the steel product used for making cars.

Unabated by repeated headlines on steel import tariffs (28 cases in 2024), Chinese steel exports in October rose +41% on a YoY basis.

President Trump’s tariff policy announced during his campaign is expected to heighten trade tensions with China, top destination for US agri exports, accounting for an average of 36% from 2020 to 2023.

India’s weekly iron ore exports have surged to a new 5-year seasonal high, buoyed by post-monsoon recovery and iron ore prices holding above 100$/t.

Anticipating China’s stimulus before Golden Week? In September, iron ore output rose 12% month-over-month, rebounding to seasonal highs after a summer dip to 5-year lows.

In September 2024, China’s coal imports increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching a record 47.6 million tonnes.

USDA reports show American soybean sales have hit a 3-year seasonal high, with US Gulf and North Pacific ports becoming the cheapest sources for China.

Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports have been on a downtrend for two months, reaching their lowest levels since late May 2024, despite a 25% drop in iron ore prices from May to September.

Abruptly down in July, China’s iron ore output stayed at 5-year seasonal low level for a second month in Aug’24!

Doomed poor demand in the construction sector leading to low steel prices & production margins, the contraction of China’s steel output accelerated to -10% YoY in Aug’24 compared to -4% in the first eight months of 2024.

Despite elevated stocks, imports of soybean in China rose +30% YoY to a new record at 12.1Mt in Aug’24 after import pace had stood at 5-year seasonal high since Jun’24.

Paradoxically, weekly iron ore exports from Brazil came at a new all-time high of 9.9Mt/week in-sync with SGX iron ore futures contract for Oct’24 failing to maintain prices…

A lack of rain in parts of Kalimantan, ID, in recent weeks hampering barging and forcing affected Indonesian miners to defer laycans, declining exports from…

With SGX iron ore prices nearing to 100$/t at the end of June, iron ore miners in China hit the brake pedal in July!

With rainfalls over Panama reverting to normal after May 2024, the draft of the Panama Canal recovered and is now expected to reach 87ft by coming mid-October, in-line with seasonal average.

With China still struggling with its construction sector, prices for steel rebar reached fresh 5-year lows last week and production margins fell the lowest in a decade.

With intense shipment activity from Indonesia last week, weekly global coal exports came at a seasonal record of 30.6Mt last week, only 1Mt below the current record in Mar’23.

The swift start of wheat harvest in Russia & Ukraine, to 38% & 57% completion respectively, brings the perspective of a quick ramp-up of wheat exports from the Black Sea.

At current pace of bauxite mining expansion, rainy seasons in Guinea typically reduce exports by -15% relative to adjacent months, it has nevertheless allowed exports to grow ~20% on a year-on-year basis.

Despite rising +10% since May’24, soybean stockpiles at Chinese ports still have room for more!