Dry Bulk

Anticipating China’s stimulus before Golden Week? In September, iron ore output rose 12% month-over-month, rebounding to seasonal highs after a summer dip to 5-year lows.

In September 2024, China’s coal imports increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching a record 47.6 million tonnes.

USDA reports show American soybean sales have hit a 3-year seasonal high, with US Gulf and North Pacific ports becoming the cheapest sources for China.

Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports have been on a downtrend for two months, reaching their lowest levels since late May 2024, despite a 25% drop in iron ore prices from May to September.

Abruptly down in July, China’s iron ore output stayed at 5-year seasonal low level for a second month in Aug’24!

Doomed poor demand in the construction sector leading to low steel prices & production margins, the contraction of China’s steel output accelerated to -10% YoY in Aug’24 compared to -4% in the first eight months of 2024.

Despite elevated stocks, imports of soybean in China rose +30% YoY to a new record at 12.1Mt in Aug’24 after import pace had stood at 5-year seasonal high since Jun’24.

Paradoxically, weekly iron ore exports from Brazil came at a new all-time high of 9.9Mt/week in-sync with SGX iron ore futures contract for Oct’24 failing to maintain prices…

A lack of rain in parts of Kalimantan, ID, in recent weeks hampering barging and forcing affected Indonesian miners to defer laycans, declining exports from…

With SGX iron ore prices nearing to 100$/t at the end of June, iron ore miners in China hit the brake pedal in July!

With rainfalls over Panama reverting to normal after May 2024, the draft of the Panama Canal recovered and is now expected to reach 87ft by coming mid-October, in-line with seasonal average.

With China still struggling with its construction sector, prices for steel rebar reached fresh 5-year lows last week and production margins fell the lowest in a decade.

With intense shipment activity from Indonesia last week, weekly global coal exports came at a seasonal record of 30.6Mt last week, only 1Mt below the current record in Mar’23.

The swift start of wheat harvest in Russia & Ukraine, to 38% & 57% completion respectively, brings the perspective of a quick ramp-up of wheat exports from the Black Sea.

At current pace of bauxite mining expansion, rainy seasons in Guinea typically reduce exports by -15% relative to adjacent months, it has nevertheless allowed exports to grow ~20% on a year-on-year basis.

Despite rising +10% since May’24, soybean stockpiles at Chinese ports still have room for more!

Up +4% YoY against record inventories at Chinese ports, weekly global iron exports reached a new record at 36.6Mt/wk last week.

In-line with Indonesian coal output up +5% YoY so far in 2024 and the Association of Indonesian Mining Professionals still forecasting a +104Mt YoY increase to…

In May’24, China’s crude steel production surprised to the upside, up +8% MoM or +3% YoY, on the back of electric-arc furnaces powered…

Same cause, same effects? With China’s property crisis still unravelling, with more developers ordered to…