Dry Bulk

As of 22 Jun 2025, domestic coal stocks at Indian power plants (excluding imports) rose +0.8% WoW and +31% YoY to 58 Mt, equivalent to 21 days of consumption cover, as firm supply met rising coal-fired generation.

Through Jan-Apr’25, China’s civil steel ship output surged to a record 16.9 Mt-LDT, achieving a significant +33.5% YoY growth and more than doubling the average levels seen during the 2020–2022 period.

China’s coal imports dropped to 36Mt in May’25, marking a -17.8% YoY and -4.7% MoM decline — the lowest seasonal level in three years.

Seasonality is back in play, unlocking a virtuous cycle for shipowners: rising seaborne volumes and falling prices, with iron ore benchmark price testing 95 $/t CFR China – a setup that could encourage restocking.

In April 2025, the average Lead Time for new bulk carrier orders has climbed to a 7-year high, now exceeding 2.5 years.

China’s thermal power output fell to 449.1 TWh in Apr’25, the lowest since Feb’24 after a -2.3% MoM and 4.1% YoY drop, marking a three-year seasonal low.

After a sluggish start to 2025, China’s iron ore imports surged +10% MoM to a seasonal record 103Mt (+1.3% YoY) in Apr’25, as cyclone-delayed vessels finally discharged.

With the Baltic Panamax Index averaging a 5-year low in Jan–Apr’25, owners are increasingly retiring older tonnage.

Weekly coal loadings from Australia have sharply increased, with early figures pointing to a significant recovery from seasonal lows.

Down for 9 consecutive weeks, including a -3.3Mt decline last week, iron ore inventories at Chinese ports now stand at 135Mt (-5.9% YoY).

Trump signs it, Xi digs it? In Mar’25, China’s coal mining hit a record 441Mt (+10% YoY), pushing coal imports down -3Mt YoY to a 3-year seasonal low of 39Mt.

With soybean inventories falling to a 2-year low of 6.5Mt, crushing margins are still positive and have found support at +44$/t.

Global bauxite shipments hit 6.5Mt last week, ending 1Q’25 at record levels.

With the Indonesian government enforcing a new coal pricing system and finalising new royalty rates, Asian buyers are rapidly shifting procurement strategies.

With only 22 bulk carriers (≥10kt-DWT) ordered through Jan-Feb 2025, it has been the slowest start to the year since 2018, signalling the end of the current cycle.

In 2025, China’s steel exports remain strong despite a slightly slower momentum.

Pendulum swing? Global iron ore loadings hit 39Mt/Wk last week – just 3Mt/Wk below record – as Australian miners…

New US policy on China-built vessels: unintended hit on US agri exporters?

Despite a Category 5 punch and a 3-day halt at key ports in West Australia, Cyclone Zelia left iron ore operations largely intact with BHP and FMG already back in action.

Despite adverse weather in recent weeks and still facing this week, cumulated exports of US corn in the first 7 weeks of 2025…