Recovering after the monsoon season and supported by iron ore prices trending upwards in 2H’23, India’s iron ore exports have climbed above 5-year high levels.
Sharp seasonal slow-down for Brazil iron ore exports in early Jan’24!
Despite ending 2023 at 5-year high levels and posting a new record at 10.1Mt/wk on the week connecting 2023 to 2024…
When plan B does not calculate anymore! The recent re-routing of Bulk Carriers heading to Asia via Panama to Suez, and later to Cape of Good Hope
The shift to Suez Canal from Panama, coupled with escalating Middle East violence, is rapidly reshaping bulk carrier routes to the Far-East, impacting fleet utilization in the North Atlantic.
India iron ore exports back to 5-year record at 1.2Mt/Week!
Despite steel output rising +9%/year in the last 2 years, India confirmed its return on the iron ore exports markets one year ago and ramped the exports pace to a 5-year high level in Dec’23.
Chinese Soybean ports stocks at 18-month highs as sentiment is dented by hog farming oversupply
China’s soybean imports surged, lifting port inventories to an 18-month high of 7.1Mt, still 10% below 2021 levels during widespread African Swine Fever outbreaks.
Bulk Carriers Orders vs Ageing Fleet
The comparison of the order book and the fleet gathering ships over 20-years of age, the natural candidates for recycling, shows significant disparities across various Bulk Carriers segments.
China’s abundant coal stocks to comfortably see through winter!
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…
What‘s driving iron ore prices higher against seasonality?
Diverging from recent years’ seasonality, iron ore prices delivered to China have been rallying since August.
ECSA expected to keep eating US market shares in soybean trade
Reading latest USDA forecast, competition for soybean market-share is to remain in favour of Brazil in coming marketing year 23’/’24!
China Exports in October 2023 points at slowing inflation!
Whilst China exports expressed in US dollar terms fell -6.4% YoY and came lower than market expectations, the situation appears more nuanced when considering exports expressed in quantities.
Panamax Group: Orders per year & YoY Change
So far in 2023, Panamax was the bulk carrier segment attracting the most orders with 184 units placed.
USDA Combined Agri Exports +80% MoM in latest resurgence during harvest period
Combined agri exports out of US has made an astounding recovery in recent weeks, improving +80% MoM to reach levels closer to 2022 albeit -14% YoY lower.
China’s hydropower output up +41% YoY in September was far from covering its overall power demand growth!
Despite hydropower generation in China standing at 5-year seasonal record for 2 months and rising +41% YoY or +40TWh YoY in Sep’23, thermal power generation, primarily from coal, has remained at seasonal record level too and grew +3% YoY during the period.
From a 5-year weekly record, Brazil iron ore exports relaxed -42% WoW
After reaching last week a new 5-year record at 9.7Mt/wk, weekly iron ore exports from Brazil relaxed -42% WoW to 5.6Mt/wk, the slowest week on record since Feb’23!
Brazil’s corn exports hit a record, but poor margins could hurt volumes next year
Breaking record for 2 months, Brazil’s corn exports in Sep’23 rose +47% YoY to 9.5Mt, with China consolidating its position of #1 buyer of Brazilian corn (~24% in 2023).
Bottoming in 2022, the growth pace of the Bulk Carrier Fleet accelerates in 2023 (Jan-Aug)
Through Jan-Aug’23, +19.4 Mt-Dwt were added to the Bulk Carrier fleet, equivalent to a +11% or +2Mt-Dwt YoY increase.
Iron Ore Destocking in Chinese Ports: Impact on Prices and Capesize Rates
Challenging seasonality, iron ore destocking at Chinese ports keeps going and inventories have reached distressed levels supporting iron ore prices & Capesize rates!
When steel is no longer needed at home, China gets it exported!
Contrasting with previous years, when steel exports were seasonally tracking domestic production and trending lower in the second half of the year, steel exports in Aug’23 unseasonably bounced +13% MoM or +35% YoY to record 8.3Mt/mth.
Potential for Brazil to China tonne-mile gains
Petrobras’ Chief Executive Jean Paul Prates caused something of a stir with recent comments made regarding the planned opening of a Chinese subsidiary.
The top-3 routes for Capesize vessels
Iron ore accounts for more than 60% of Capesize ton-miles, so it is no surprise that two iron ore routes are among the top three ton-mile contributors to the segment.