Dry Bulk

Through Aug’25, Brazilian iron ore exports climbed from 7.2Mt/wk to a record 10.6Mt/wk last week — the strongest since the 2019 Brumadinho disaster.

When 4×0 is still 0? This week, the US and China extended their trade truce by 90 days (until 10-Nov), keeping US tariffs on Chinese goods at 30%, and China’s at 10%.

Kicking off the new fiscal year, Australia’s weekly iron ore loadings rose for a fourth straight week to 18.3Mt, marking a 5-year seasonal high.

Soybean inventories at Chinese ports remained below 7Mt at the end of Jul’25, slightly under their 5-year seasonal lows – despite a sharp recovery since May.

Global crude steel output fell sharply in Jun’25, with production across the 70 reporting countries down -5.8% YoY to 151 Mt. Year-to-date, output slipped -1.3% YoY to 928 Mt.

In Jun’25, China’s steel sector showed a striking divergence.

In 1H’25, Capesize coal loadings remained notably weak, falling -27% YoY to just 143Mt, driven by both supply- and demand-side pressures.

Global bauxite loadings surged +23% YoY to 146 Mt in 1H’25, marking a record-high start to the year.

As of 22 Jun 2025, domestic coal stocks at Indian power plants (excluding imports) rose +0.8% WoW and +31% YoY to 58 Mt, equivalent to 21 days of consumption cover, as firm supply met rising coal-fired generation.

Through Jan-Apr’25, China’s civil steel ship output surged to a record 16.9 Mt-LDT, achieving a significant +33.5% YoY growth and more than doubling the average levels seen during the 2020–2022 period.

China’s coal imports dropped to 36Mt in May’25, marking a -17.8% YoY and -4.7% MoM decline — the lowest seasonal level in three years.

Seasonality is back in play, unlocking a virtuous cycle for shipowners: rising seaborne volumes and falling prices, with iron ore benchmark price testing 95 $/t CFR China – a setup that could encourage restocking.

In April 2025, the average Lead Time for new bulk carrier orders has climbed to a 7-year high, now exceeding 2.5 years.

China’s thermal power output fell to 449.1 TWh in Apr’25, the lowest since Feb’24 after a -2.3% MoM and 4.1% YoY drop, marking a three-year seasonal low.

After a sluggish start to 2025, China’s iron ore imports surged +10% MoM to a seasonal record 103Mt (+1.3% YoY) in Apr’25, as cyclone-delayed vessels finally discharged.

With the Baltic Panamax Index averaging a 5-year low in Jan–Apr’25, owners are increasingly retiring older tonnage.

Weekly coal loadings from Australia have sharply increased, with early figures pointing to a significant recovery from seasonal lows.

Down for 9 consecutive weeks, including a -3.3Mt decline last week, iron ore inventories at Chinese ports now stand at 135Mt (-5.9% YoY).

Trump signs it, Xi digs it? In Mar’25, China’s coal mining hit a record 441Mt (+10% YoY), pushing coal imports down -3Mt YoY to a 3-year seasonal low of 39Mt.

With soybean inventories falling to a 2-year low of 6.5Mt, crushing margins are still positive and have found support at +44$/t.