Challenging seasonality, iron ore destocking at Chinese ports keeps going and inventories have reached distressed levels supporting iron ore prices & Capesize rates!
When steel is no longer needed at home, China gets it exported!
Contrasting with previous years, when steel exports were seasonally tracking domestic production and trending lower in the second half of the year, steel exports in Aug’23 unseasonably bounced +13% MoM or +35% YoY to record 8.3Mt/mth.
Potential for Brazil to China tonne-mile gains
Petrobras’ Chief Executive Jean Paul Prates caused something of a stir with recent comments made regarding the planned opening of a Chinese subsidiary.
The top-3 routes for Capesize vessels
Iron ore accounts for more than 60% of Capesize ton-miles, so it is no surprise that two iron ore routes are among the top three ton-mile contributors to the segment.
Brazil corn export season to boost Panamax Fleet Usage
The Summer corn harvest in Brazil is progressing at a rate of +9% WoW, reaching 20% of completion.
Brazil key player behind corn exports tripling over the past 20 years
Over the last 20 years, corn exports increased +174% from 74Mt in 2002 to 204Mt in 2022. This was mostly achieved through Brazil & Ukraine expanding their market share from 4% & 1% in 2002 to 21% & 12% in 2022. Simultaneously, the contribution of the USA was diluted from 61% down to 25%.
Declining Capesize rates have led owners to renew with demolition after a pause in 2022!
Demolition pace of older Capesize Vessels (130k MT dwt to 200k Mt dwt) is rising & has already exceeded the total volume of 2022! With Capes 5TC spot index trending down lately and the negative macro environment, demolition volumes are set to grow further in the upcoming months!
IG Dry Research Advisors presenting at GrainCom 2023 in Geneva
IG Dry Research Advisors presenting our view on Handy to Panamax Freight Market Outlook at GrainCom 2023 in Geneva