After a brief period in which bauxite seaborne trade growth outpaced iron ore we project that iron ore will reclaim its dominant position in global commodities markets from 2026 onward.
The recent surge in bauxite exports, which in 2025 grew by 43 Mt, is viewed as cyclical rather than structural, reflecting short-term supply and demand dynamics rather than a lasting shift.
Overall, the iron ore trade is expected to strengthen over the next few years, supported by a new wave of supply projects, broader geographic diversification, and steady Chinese demand amid declining domestic mining output. India’s rapidly expanding steel production is also set to drive additional import needs, further boosting the market outlook for iron ore.
In contrast, bauxite trade growth is anticipated to moderate, aligning largely with China’s continued reduction in domestic ore production and modest demand growth from India, the Emirates and Vietnam.
“While bauxite’s recent blistering performance has drawn attention, the fundamentals point to iron ore reasserting its leadership as the backbone of global steelmaking”, said Vincent Lemaitre, Head of Dry Bulk Research at IG.
“Emerging supply capacity and resilient end-use demand, particularly from China and India, will underpin the next phase of growth.”
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