Shipments reached 7.3Mt/wk in early Apr’26, up +25% WoW and +21% YoY, lifting year-to-date flows to 88Mt (Jan–Apr), up +12% YoY. Guinea leads with 63Mt YtD, up +11.7% YoY, sustaining exports near ~5 Mt/wk.
Yet, market is getting oversupplied in China, increasingly rendering exports uneconomical for smelters. China port inventories have flipped from a ~-15% draw (Nov’25–Feb’26) to a rebuild in Mar–Apr’26, now ~3 months ahead YoY, with 30 Mt in sight by May’26, while prices hold flat at 67.5$/t.
Record supply is meeting softer demand, raising congestion risks and clouding the outlook for West African freight demand into 2Q’26.
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