US Presidential Elections impact on grains

President Trump’s tariff policy announced during his campaign is expected to heighten trade tensions with China, top destination for US agri exports, accounting for an average of 36% from 2020 to 2023.

Stacked bar chart in the secondary color palette of IFCHOR GALBRAITHS, showing USA agri exports destinations by percentage from 2014 to 2023. Destinations include China, Other Far East, Mexico/ECCAM, Med/Cont, SE Asia, and others.

During previous US-China trade war (2018-19), export volumes to China fell to multi-year lows of 13Mt & 21Mt, down -65% & -43% compared with average 37Mt from 2015 to 2017. US soybeans are currently the most affordable option for Chinese buyers, and this result may drive China to accelerate purchases in the short term, in order to finalize deals before any tariffs are implemented.

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