US crude steel production reached 7.4 Mt in Jul’26, up +4% YoY, but has not fully offset reduced foreign availability.
Total steel imports fell -20% YoY in Jan-Jul’26, including -44% YoY from Canada. The squeeze is increasingly visible in forward HRC prices rising to level unseen since May’22. Canadian steel faces a 50% tariff, limiting the scope for imports to ease the domestic market.
With demand firm and import competition reduced, US steel prices remain upward-biased, adding cost pressure for US manufacturers and potentially feeding through into broader inflation.
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