2026 volumes are constrained by rail logistics, not geology. Despite a pick-up in 1Q’26, only 8 locomotives were deployed, capping throughput.
One of 2 transhippers was reassigned to load bauxite near Kamsar. At port, 3 barges now rotate simultaneously (vs one in Jan’26), improving flows. AIS data also show 3 vessels (~600 kt) scheduled for arrival in Apr’26.
Official guidance still points to 15-20Mt in Cal’26 but is likely to skew lower without a clear gear shift. SimFer still targets 5-10Mt, while WCS could exceed 10Mt, locomotives permitting.
The inflection point is 2Q’26. With the 80km rail branch commissioned by end-1Q’26, SimFer port operations are expected by late 2Q’26, a key step to unlock capacity and trigger further locomotive deployment.
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