Trade flows explain why a rapid shift looks unlikely.
Iran imported ~16Mt of grains and oilseeds in 2025 and ~9Mt so far in 2026 (+35% YoY), with roughly two-thirds sourced from Brazil. As the chart shows, Brazil has dominated Iran’s agricultural imports for a decade, while the US has been largely absent.
These established supply chains, supported by competitive pricing, logistics and payment channels, will be difficult to displace quickly. Even with broader market access, meaningful US grain sales to Iran appear unlikely in the near term.
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