Three constraints are converging.
First, El Niño has lowered river levels in Kalimantan, forcing Samarinda’s port authority to cap barge loads at ~80% of normal. Second, Indonesia’s 2026 RKAB target of ~600Mt compares with 818Mt produced in 2025. Bayan secured roughly half of its requested 76Mt quota and declared force majeure from Oct’26.
Third, domestic supply obligations are tightening export availability. Producers already allocate 30–50% of output to PLN, with authorities potentially requiring miners less affected by river disruptions to make up for shortfalls elsewhere.
With dry conditions forecast through Feb’27, exports face further pressure in Q4’26–Q1’27, potentially pushing buyers towards more distant suppliers and boosting fleet-wide tonne-mile demand.
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