Despite mild prices, the shortfall looks primarily policy-led rather than cyclical or conjunctural.
Still, some miners have reportedly paused spot exports after receiving proposals to cut Cal’26 production quotas by 40–70% vs ‘25. With allocations still under negotiation and details unclear, cargoes appear to be withheld, which has tightened near-term seaborne availability even as buyer demand softens, despite objections from the Indonesia Coal Mining Association.
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