At this stage, fertilisers are the most exposed dry bulk commodity on the export side. The true volume is likely higher. AIS jamming and spoofing in the region reduce vessel visibility and mask part of the flow.
Disruptions are triggering mixed responses across other exporting origins. In Mar’26, fertiliser loadings from Canada and China reached 5-year seasonal highs of 1.6 Mt and 2.1 Mt, up +39% and +64% MoM.
Russia remained at a 3-year seasonal low of 3.8 Mt, constrained by export quotas extended to 30-Nov’26 to protect domestic supply during the spring sowing campaign. As of 21-Mar’26, China also introduced export restrictions, pointing to further tightening in global supply.
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