May’26 loadings fell -3% YoY to 19.1Mt, marking the first year-on-year decline since Aug’25. Yet market economics, rather than policy, is the main driver. Record Chinese port inventories, freight rates and fuel costs have squeezed margins. With bauxite at 68$/t CFR China and freight at 37.6$/t, FOB netbacks have fallen to just the low 30$/t, making fresh spot sales increasingly unattractive.
The policy message remains supportive. On 25-May’26, Guinea’s Mining Minister stated that “supply should not exceed demand” and that exports would be regulated to support prices. Bauxite prices subsequently rose by +1$/t.
As the source of 60% of global bauxite supply and 70% of China’s imports, any sustained reduction in Guinean exports could materially tighten global bauxite availability in 2H’26. For further insights, contact [email protected].