In Sep’26, China’s iron ore mining plunged -25% YoY to 63Mt, a fresh 2026 low, extending an accelerating YoY decline since Apr’26. Jan-Sep’26 output fell -11.6% YoY to 666Mt, reinforcing import dependence.
Meanwhile, Guinea’s Simandou shipped 1.2Mt last week, with Oct’26 exports running at an annualised 57.2Mtpa, more than double the 26Mtpa Jan-Sep’26 pace. Winning operates 3 transhipment vessels (TSVs) and 2 floating cranes, while RT Simfer’s first TSV awaits its terminal’s inauguration.
China’s mining retreat and Simandou’s ramp-up are reshaping iron ore trade flows, boosting seaborne volumes and Capesize/VLOC demand.
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