Such imbalances cannot grow indefinitely without straining trading partners, fuelling protectionism or worse.
With US dollar borrowing costs at 25-year highs and still rising, China’s industrial groups enjoy a significant financing advantage to accelerate overseas acquisitions, greenfield projects and JVs.
Chinese-backed aluminium and steel investments across Asia and Africa are already numerous, with more likely to follow. In 2026, iron ore illustrates the shift: China’s domestic mining fell −10% YoY through Aug’26, while imports rose +4%, despite consumption declining −2%. Guinea’s Simandou is a prime example of mining production shifting overseas.
For dry bulk, a gradual unwinding of China’s trade surplus through overseas investment and offshoring could reshape trade flows, supporting seaborne volumes and longer tonne-miles even as domestic commodity consumption weakens.
For further insights, contact [email protected].
China’s Record Trade Surplus to Accelerate Overseas Expansion?
China’s trade surplus hit a record 133B$ in Sep’26 (+50% YoY), bringing Jan–Sep close to 1T$ (+7.9% YoY).
