China’s Iron ore output recovered marginally in Aug’24, a sign of better things?

Abruptly down in July, China’s iron ore output stayed at 5-year seasonal low level for a second month in Aug’24!

A chart showing the evolution of China iron ore output from January to December, comparing data from 2022, 2023, and 2024, with each year represented by different colors from the IFCHOR GALBRAITHS color palette. Additionally, a grey-shaded area represents the 5-year range of variation.

Through Jul-Aug, output came at low-70’sMt/month, down 16.4% YoY, more than the 8.3% YoY decline recorded at Chinese blast-furnaces. Nevertheless, due to its low iron content, the slow-down at Chinese mines is thought to have matched only 50%-75% of the lower consumption at the steel mills.

Should iron prices CFR China stay well under 100$ in upcoming weeks, mining in China is expected to decline even faster due to negative margins. A quick recovery of steel & iron sector on China’s recent economic stimulus plan seems unlikely since the plan focus on a financial sector struggling with expensive/non-performing loans and CISA keeps encouraging its members to wind down steel output.

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