China’s iron ore output bouncing in September ahead of stimulus headlines

Anticipating China’s stimulus before Golden Week? In September, iron ore output rose 12% month-over-month, rebounding to seasonal highs after a summer dip to 5-year lows.

A chart showing the evolution of China iron ore production from January to December, comparing data from 2022, 2023, and 2024, with each year represented by different colours from the IFCHOR GALBRAITHS colour palette. Additionally, a grey-shaded area represents the 5-year range of variation.

Prices topped $100/ton following the stimulus announcement, suggesting sustained production into October. Unlike past economic-focused plans, this one targets financial institutions and stock markets, with minimal industry impact. Over the past five weeks, iron ore prices have fallen below $100 due to slowing exports, steady stockpile depletion, declining consumption, falling Capesize spot rates, and the recent increase in domestic production.

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