China’s clinker exports: a major driver of Supramax demand in 2026

During Jan–Oct’26, Chinese clinker exports generated 54.4B additional ton-miles (+206% YoY) on Supramax/Ultramax vessels, accounting for…

… nearly 90% of global clinker ton-mile growth and 28% of total Supramax ton-mile gains in that period.

Looking ahead, expanding cement grinding capacity in West Africa could sustain clinker imports and Supramax demand. However, Nigeria’s emergence as a regional supplier threatens to displace Chinese cargoes.

China’s gradual unwinding of cement/clinker overcapacity could sustain long-haul exports for several years, although Nigeria’s growing regional supply and proximity advantage may progressively displace Chinese shipments.

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