Shipments have more than doubled from 0.8 Mt/wk in early Aug’26, lifting Jan-Sep’26 exports to 53.9 Mt, +11% YoY. The rebound reflects tightening Indian Ocean coal supply. India’s monsoon has constrained domestic output, while firm power demand and lower gas and hydro availability are increasing reliance on coal.
From 01-Oct, 112 captive coal plants have been ordered to maximise generation through year-end. Meanwhile, Indonesian exports remain constrained by lower 2026 RKAB approvals and El Niño-related drought disrupting river logistics. These constraints are increasing demand for alternative seaborne supply, supporting South African exports.
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