China is buying U.S. soybeans again: Strong state buying, private demand still on hold

Chinese state-owned trading houses have bought ~11Mt of U.S. soybeans since the latest China–US meeting in May’26, putting China on track toward of earlier commitments to purchase at least 25Mt annually through 2028.

But there is an important divide: private crushers have largely stayed away from U.S. cargoes, as tariffs leave U.S. soybeans uncompetitive against Brazilian supplies.

With Brazilian availability tightening, attention now turns to this month’s China–US discussions, with crushers hoping for tariff relief that could unlock private-sector demand. USDA sales data already shows how different the picture is from 2025. The next leg could depend on whether private buyers join in.

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