The decline coincides with an intensifying El Niño-driven dry season, with river levels across Indonesia visibly retreating and reducing barge draft and cargo capacity. As El Niño is expected to strengthen through 2H’26, these logistical constraints are likely to persist into Q3/Q4, limiting export availability.
Barge operators may increasingly rely on lighter loads and more frequent voyages to sustain volumes, reducing overall loading efficiency even as demand from India and China remains firm. YTD loadings stand at 352Mt, down -3% YoY. Longer term, Indonesia’s export outlook is also constrained by the authorities’ continued push towards a single-door coal export system, which could further reshape export flows.
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Indonesia coal loadings fall to multi-month low as El Niño drought squeezes river barges
Indonesian coal loadings fell to 10.2Mt/wk last week, down -18% YoY and -18% MoM, reaching a 2026 low and approaching a 3-year low.
