Current vessel tracking suggests ~1Mt of fertilizers remains trapped, although this is only an estimate given AIS dark activity and signal spoofing.
Recovery is unlikely to be immediate. Greater clarity is still needed on mine clearance, transit procedures and safety arrangements, while many shipowners and insurers are waiting for sustained evidence of safe navigation before returning at scale.
Fertilizer exports may also recover gradually. Inventories built during the conflict could support an initial release of cargoes before production fully normalizes. Regional urea output depends on natural gas, while sulphur exports rely on refining and sour-gas processing, both affected by the conflict.
Trade flows are already adapting. For Brazil, China’s approval of ~2 Mt of additional urea exports for Jun–Aug’26 should ease supply concerns ahead of the Sep–Oct’26 planting season.
For further insights, contact [email protected].