Soybean inventories at Chinese ports remained at a record 8.6Mt for 2 weeks (-0.1% WoW yet +63% YoY). Soymeal inventories have eased from the 1.1Mt peak seen earlier in Cal’26, but at 0.5Mt remain unusually high for the season (+367% YoY). Both reflect a market where soybean crushing margins have stayed negative for 5 consecutive weeks.
The political optics may favour fresh agricultural purchase headlines, as in past summits. But commercially, China is negotiating from comfort, not scarcity. Any US soybean commitments must also compete with cheaper South American supply, limiting urgency unless shipments extend into 2027.
For further insights, contact [email protected].