Beyond risks to energy supply and prices, the most immediate trade impact is the “de facto” closure of the Strait of Hormuz, although some rare transits still occur. Around 220 bulk carriers (14.9Mt-Dwt), ~1.4% of the global fleet, are now trapped inside the Gulf.
Panamax vessels are the most exposed, with 91 ships (7.5Mt-Dwt, 2.7% of the fleet) immobilised. Outside the Strait, Panamax ballast capacity fell -10% WoW to 1.8 Mt-Dwt, while laden vessels waiting to discharge remain steady at 2.2 Mt-Dwt.
With strong US and Brazilian grain exports, arrivals are likely to accelerate in coming weeks, making safe passage through Hormuz increasingly a humanitarian priority.
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