US grain trade at a crossroads – soybeans sink, corn climbs

US soybean exports have entered uncharted waters — with no new sales to China recorded so far and little progress expected before 31 October 2025, when the U.S. and Chinese presidents are set to meet in South Korea.

American soybean exports China chart in IFCHOR GALBRAITHS brand colours, showing USDA weekly data from 2023–2025 and a 5-year minimum and maximum range.

The seasonal export peak in 4Q looks challenging, as soybean transit volumes are projected to fall to just one-third of typical levels.

On the brighter side, record corn exports are helping to offset the shortfall — rising +70% YoY to 1.6Mt/wk last week.

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