Under the latest production plan and reversal of voluntary production curbs, key OPEC+ producers will bring back 2.2m b/d of headline production by the September 2026, nominally amounting to roughly an additional 139,000b/d coming back into the market every month.
This policy impacts production levels of 8 key producers in the group; Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. However, a number of these OPEC+ producers have been over-producing relative to their allowances.
Yesterday, OPEC+ published the compensation plans of these overproducers, with Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia bearing the brunt of these curbs.
Compensations for this overproduction, suggests a more muted impact of OPEC+ policy in the near term, with compensation levels outweighing production increases until July at the earliest. Although in the more medium term, the barrels coming back into the market will still offer some significant upside to crude tankers over the next 18 months.