Market intelligence
- Full access to IG market reports and assessments
- AIS-based vessel tracking and congestion analysis
- Bespoke VIP analytical reports using AIS data
Supporting a Fast-Growing Trading House
A small entrepreneurial trading house dealing in fertilisers and agricultural products began expanding its freight exposure. The firm had started trading FFAs (freight derivatives) and occasionally taking ships on period, but had no internal market analysis capability.
The company needed a clearer view of the fundamentals driving the dry bulk market and a way to interpret signals quickly as their trading activity increased. They turned to IG’s Virtual Market Analyst service for support.
Step 1 Building A Market Capacity Model
We began by developing a Capesize capacity model based on core market fundamentals:
- Fleet growth and vessel supply
- Trade flows and cargo demand
- Utilisation and available tonnage
This gave the client a structured way to understand how supply and demand interacted in the market.
Step 2 Moving Beyond Data Into Interpretation
Once the model was in place, the work expanded into qualitative interpretation of real-time market signals, including:
- Port congestion analysis
- Vessel positioning and tonnage counts
- News and operational disruptions
- Changes in demand patterns
Rather than simply describing events, we focused on deriving near-term market implications from current developments.
For example, in the wake of cyclones affecting Australian commodity exports, we analysed congestion, vessel queues and cargo disruptions to anticipate the likely short-term tightening in vessel availability. This allowed the client to position its freight exposure with greater confidence.
Step 3 Ongoing Market Support
The relationship evolved into a structured analytical partnership.
The client received:
Regular insight
- Weekly email updates including:
- Tonnage counts
- Market news recap
- Congestion monitoring
Models and analytical tools
- Development and quarterly updates of a Capesize fleet supply and capacity utilisation model
- Continuous improvement of the modelling framework as market conditions evolved
Direct analyst access
- Dedicated interaction with a senior market research analyst
- Approximately 2 hours per week of analyst availability for market discussion and interpretation
- Monthly consultation reviewing freight exposure and further development of the Panamax supply–demand model