To what extent do rainfall levels impact bauxite export volumes in Guinea?

At current pace of bauxite mining expansion, rainy seasons in Guinea typically reduce exports by -15% relative to adjacent months, it has nevertheless allowed exports to grow ~20% on a year-on-year basis.

A chart displaying the evolution of rainfall levels in Guinea from January 2021 to July 2024 compared to Bauxite Mining Export Volumes, each represented by a different line, all in IG colors.

In 2024 and with the mild rainfalls recorded since May, exports over-performed and rose more than +15% YoY and pace above 4Mt/Wk. The situation might change with weather forecasts pointing more intense rain episodes in the region of Sangaredi and daily precipitation spiking up to 18 cm!

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